Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-29 1.872410 1.974894 2.082045 2.202794 2.335521 2.477476 2.641450
2025-07-06 1.690751 1.829091 1.980034 2.158197 2.364382 2.597560 2.884229
2025-07-13 1.610392 1.774206 1.958596 2.183962 2.455447 2.776650 3.192882
2025-07-20 1.554782 1.738197 1.949940 2.216360 2.548499 2.957435 3.513549
2025-07-27 1.511452 1.710963 1.946355 2.250181 2.640819 3.139834 3.850536
2025-08-03 1.452990 1.660622 1.909762 2.237861 2.670301 3.239739 4.083226
2025-08-10 1.401325 1.614943 1.875069 2.223786 2.693787 3.330206 4.308586
2025-08-17 1.351772 1.568922 1.836711 2.201295 2.702457 3.398316 4.505354
2025-08-24 1.306853 1.526364 1.800134 2.178094 2.707087 3.458929 4.694715
2025-08-31 1.276165 1.500301 1.783149 2.179434 2.744859 3.569148 4.974238
2025-09-07 1.252202 1.481624 1.774529 2.190980 2.796882 3.703608 5.309969
2025-09-14 1.213999 1.442838 1.737376 2.160497 2.784698 3.736648 5.471929
2025-09-21 1.176067 1.403676 1.698896 2.127219 2.767633 3.762594 5.628798
2025-09-28 1.137171 1.362039 1.655588 2.085047 2.734516 3.759748 5.731376
2025-10-05 1.124483 1.354748 1.658591 2.109384 2.804450 3.932264 6.199207
2025-10-12 1.114780 1.350937 1.665935 2.139971 2.885583 4.130831 6.756636
2025-10-19 1.106066 1.348014 1.674154 2.171886 2.970521 4.344178 7.391087
2025-10-26 1.083900 1.325893 1.654346 2.160262 2.982882 4.426330 7.743304
2025-11-02 1.062412 1.304061 1.634146 2.146981 2.991348 4.501477 8.093874
2025-11-09 1.039584 1.279734 1.609551 2.125750 2.984842 4.547001 8.379414
2025-11-16 1.017645 1.256083 1.585198 2.103842 2.975763 4.586434 8.657752
2025-11-23 1.003573 1.243084 1.575876 2.105107 3.006931 4.708793 9.193022
2025-11-30 0.992926 1.234590 1.572796 2.116011 3.055570 4.871597 9.892073